Welcome toThe Athletic’sfirst-ever Olympic power rankings.
The women’s hockey tournament starts Feb. 3 in Beijing (Feb. 2 in North America), and odds are you know enough about Canada, the U.S., their rivalry and their expected collision course to the gold medal game to guess that these teams occupy the first two spots on our rankings. But there are eight other teams in the tournament — some with medal aspirations, and others making their Olympic debuts. From top to bottom, they deserve some attention. They’ve qualified for the Olympics, after all.
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How good are the teams? Who are their best players? What can you expect from the entire field at the Olympics? We’re here to answer these questions.
The methodology is simple: We took the IIHF World Rankingand the projections from the women’s hockey version of Dom Luszczyszyn’s Game Score Value Added model, and came up with our ownranking of the 10 teams. The finalorder came down to our gut feeling of how these teams would grade out once the tournament ended.
This iswhere we think these teams slot right now, heading into the Olympics. If you disagree, let us know. That’s fine. There’s nothing wrong with a healthy debate.
And with that, off we go.
1. Team Canada
World Ranking: 2
Projection: 1
Hailey: 1
Alyssa: 1
Hailey: I know, I know. The Canadian picking Canada as the No. 1 seed heading into the Olympics looks a little suspicious. It may be recency bias taking over, but it’s hard to look back at what they did at the World Championships in August – a perfect 7-0 en route to a gold medal – and not think that Team Canada, as currently constructed, is the best team in the tournament. They have the best player in the world in Marie-Philip Poulin — and she’s been as clutch as ever with three overtime winning goals against the U.S. in the last six months alone. They’ve also got the most recent world championship MVP Melodie Daoust, and one of the best up-and-coming talents in Sarah Fillier.
Alyssa: While Hailey might have some national pride on the line over who was going to take the No. 1 rank, I had no such issue courtesy of living closer to Antarctica than any part of the American continent. Thatsaid,Canada is an easy pick for me. Their GSVA numbers are the highest in the world right now, their top two lines are genuinely terrifying, and they’re back with a clear mission: Don’t let anyone else take gold.
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Hailey: Don’t blame where I was born. Blame The Model.
Alyssa: A convenient scapegoat. But here’s their depth chart for the record.
2. Team USA
World Ranking: 1
Projection: 2
Hailey: 2
Alyssa: 2
Hailey: It’s really hard to bet against Team USA. They’re still the world No. 1 team by the IIHF’s point system – which takes into account results from the last four years – and they’re the reigning Olympic champions. Plus, while they lost the 2021 Worlds, they had won the previous eight. They’ve been dominant for nearly a decade, with some of their core players – Hilary Knight, Brianna Decker and Kendall Coyne Schofield – still right in the mix, and they have a solid defence corps. They’ve also had a ton of important pieces retire since their 2018 Olympic gold – like Kacey Bellamy, Monique Lamoureux-Morando and Jocelyne Lamoureux-Davidson. Without some of those pieces, I don’t know if they have quite the same forward depth as Canada, especially when it comes to getting consistent production outside of their top forwards. Breakout tournaments by Olympic rookies like Abby Roque or Grace Zumwinkle could give them a boost.
Alyssa: The World Championships in August revealed some deficiencies with what can only be described as a breakdown during the group stage game against Canada — a glaring warning sign that something maybe isn’t quite there with this particular group. It will be up to the veteran players to step up and defend their crown while a crop of new young stars try to make their mark on the international stage.
Hailey: It’s hard to put a finger on what exactly went wrong for Team USA at Worlds. Their power play was bad. Alex Carpenter was great. Decker didn’t have a great tournament, although she’s still one of the best players in the world. Zumwinkle looks like a promising young star. But I agree with Alyssa, there were some flaws.
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Have those been fixed through centralization? We’re not sure, given the sample size of games post-Worlds. Which is likely why we’re both a little down on the U.S. right now. But you can see in the depth chart that their goaltending is solid and they have a legitimate top four, which could make them hard to score against.
3. Team Finland
World Ranking: 3
Projection: 3
Hailey: 3
Alyssa: 3
Alyssa: With seasoned players Jenni Hiirikoski and Michelle Karvinen on the roster, Finland was always going to be difficult to play against,and the 2019 World Championshipswere evidence of that. The breakout performances of Petra Nieminen and Anni Keisala at the most recent tournament in Calgary, while maybe not bringing them to the level of the first two teams in this ranking, have made Finland a formidable threat — and not just to win bronze. Finland has the potential to make a surprise run for gold.
Hailey: There’s been a lot of talk about the decision to leave Noora Raty off the Olympic roster. Considering she’s widely regarded as the best goalie in the world, I think it’s a mistake to leave her at home. However, Keisala was excellent at Worlds — which Raty didn’t play in due to scheduling issues with her hockey school and the changes to the tournament dates. No goalie made more saves than Keisala did in Group B at Worlds, and she gives Finland a chance to win every game she’s in. I’m not as high on Finland as Alyssa is — or rather, I’m not sure if they are quite upset-ready. It feels to me like a safe bet to assume Finland will be the team to beat in the bronze medal game.
4. Team Switzerland
World Ranking: 5
Projection: 6
Hailey: 4
Alyssa: 4
Alyssa: Listen, I’m an Alina Muller fan first and an analytics journalist second. That being said, a healthy Muller alongside Lara Stalder — who has been having a phenomenal season in the SDHL — is a must watch, and something that other teams should beworried about.
Hailey: Switzerland had a tough World Championships with Muller getting hurt against the Russians — known as the Russian Olympic Committee. They didn’t win a single group stage match, but pulled off a semifinal upset ROC to get to the bronze medal game. Imagine what they can do with Muller healthy? She was the leading scorer at the 2018 Olympics, set Olympic records with four goals in one-goal games and six points in one game and she was only 19. She’s 23 now, and pulling off more highlight reel goals in the NCAA.
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I’m excited to see what they can do here.
5. Team Czechia
World Ranking: 7
Projection: 7
Hailey: 6
Alyssa: 5
Alyssa: Watching Czechia at the 2021 World Championships might have been the most fun I have had watching hockey in a while. The team was blazingly offensive, tearing through group B with a single-mindedness that was hard not to appreciate, led by Alena Mills and Dominika Lásková. While they might not have managed to topple their Group A matchup in the quarterfinals, the Olympics are going to present them with another chance — with just that bit more experience under their belt.
Hailey: This is quite the debut on an Olympic power ranking for Czechia, considering they’ve never been to an Olympic Games before. They officially punched their ticket for the first time back in November with a 5-1 win over Hungary. I can admit, we’re probably over-rating Czechia a bit here based on potential. GSVA projects that they won’t make it out of the quarterfinals. But they have some fun, skilled players, like Mills, and they play a high-pace style that has given teams trouble in the past. They were arguably the best team in Group B and their quarterfinal game against Finland was closer than some may have expected (1-0).
Alyssa: Listen, I just want to have fun — and also maybe ruffle some feathers.
6. The Russian OlympicCommittee
World Ranking: 4
Projection: 4
Hailey: 5
Alyssa: 6
Alyssa: Anna Shokhina and Olga Sosina both performed great for ROC at the World Championships. However, in a loaded Group A against a healthy Swiss team I personally am not sure it’s going to be enough.
Hailey: The Russian team has been fine in the last year. They lost to Switzerland in the semifinals at Worlds and finished fifth in the tournament after beating Japan, which is why I personally have them at No. 5 right now. The teams we’ve listed above have more game-breaking talent that can get them past ROC in the medal rounds, which is exactly what we saw play out at the World Championships.
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7. Team Sweden
World Ranking: 9
Projection: 8
Hailey: 7
Alyssa: 7
Hailey: Sweden is so hard to predict because we have barely seen them play against top competition in the last few years. The 4 Nations tournament is dead. And they’ve only played in one Worlds in the last four years after being relegated in 2019. It’s been a wild backslide from their silver medal at the 2006 Olympics in Turin. What will they look like back at the Olympics? We don’t really know. But the model seems to like them fine enough.
Alyssa: Nothing in the world would make me happier than seeing Sweden return to anything close to their former potential after a rough few years for the women’s program. This is going to be the first time we have really seen them since they were relegated at the 2019 World Championships, and honestly I’m just hoping for better things this time around. When you break down the numbers for their last Worlds and then also look at their performance during the Olympic qualifiers there’s definitely an offensive upside to the team. Their GSVA numbers are up there with the likes of Group A, making it seem like 2019 was nothing but a bad dream.
8. Team Japan
World Ranking: 6
Projection: 5
Hailey: 8
Alyssa: 8
Alyssa: Two Words: Nana Fujimoto.
Hailey: She seriously loves Fujimoto.
Alyssa: All jokes aside, Fujimoto has the potential to make or break the Olympics for this team. A player for the New York Riveters of the NWHL in 2015, Fujimoto has experience playing against many U.S. national team members, something that is sure to come in handy if they do match up on opposite sides of the ice.
Hailey: If there’s one thing we’ve learned from tournaments like this, a hot goalie can get you far. It would be nice to see Japan have a good tournament.
9.TeamDenmark
World Ranking: 11
Projection: 10
Hailey: 9
Alyssa: 9
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Hailey: 2021 was the first time Denmark appeared in the top division of the World Championships since 2007. And it was a struggle. They went 0-4 in Group B and were outscored 15-3. Like Czechia, this will be Denmark’s first Olympic appearance. And that’s a win for them.
Alyssa: If you watch Denmark for one reason, make it Josefine Jakobson. Please, do it for me. A member of the national team since she was a teenager, Jakobson is a huge reason why Denmark has been able to qualify to compete at their first-ever Games. Playing for Djurgårdens in the SDHL, she is currently leading the team in points.
10. Team China
World Ranking: 20
Projection: 10
Hailey: 10
Alyssa: 10
Hailey: China is currently ranked 20th in the world by the IIHF. As the host nation, they get a slot in the tournament in Group B. We are projecting them to finish last. Was that harsh? I’m sorry.
Alyssa: I think their current placement in the rankings is a testament to how much women’s hockey has grown over the past three decades, with China’s highest finished placement being fourth at the 1998 Olympics in Nagano, a far cry from their current 20th in the IIHF rankings.
And you have to give props to the host nation for doing everything they can to ice a genuinely competitive Group B team. Between the partnerships with the CWHL, and then with the ZhHL, it’s hard not to see the time and energy invested in bringing Chinese hockey back into the limelight.
Hailey: That was a lot nicer.
Our predictions are formulated in a manner similar to Dom Luszczyszyn’s NHL projections, using a Game Score–based model, which was adapted for women’s hockey by Mike Murphy, in combination with the recent WHKYe model developed by Mikael Nahabedian, John Bouchard and Holly Morrison, in order to calculate and simulate 50,000 potential outcomes for the women’s Olympic tournament.
(Photo: Derek Leung / Getty Images)
